"The US study predicted that if society continues burning fossil fuels at the current rate, atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide could rise from the current level of 390 parts per million (ppm) to 1,000 by the end of this century. The last time the world had such high levels of carbon dioxide temperatures were on average 29F(16C) above pre-industrial levels.[...] But unlike last time, when it happened over millions of years, temperatures will rise too fast for species to adapt and change.[...]
He included 'feed back factors', such as melting sea ice, methane released from thawing permafrost and Amazon die-back." (via telegraph)
Finally someone not just took into account greenhouse gas emissions by humans, but also the natural feedbacks that result from this, which amplify these changes. And they looked at data from Earths history for this prediction. And what is the result? More doom and gloom, because the predictions of global warming according to that model given fossil fuel use stays steady start at 6°C warming and go up to 16°C. And that basically is the prediction for a stalled carbon emission - not a further increase. If there is an increase in emissions, as is currently the trend, it will get worse, if there is a decline (as suggested by the Climate Protocols), the feedbacks will still be there. Oh and if we hit 16°C we can maybe enjoy green skies, (if we manage not to choke to death)...
Jetzt hat doch mal jemand den Schritt gewagt und die Rückkopplungsmechanismen der Klimaerwärmung und Ergebnisse aus der Paläoklimatologie in die Klimamodelle mit einbezogen. Diese Mechanismen verstärken die Klimakatastrophe noch, da dabei noch mehr Treibhausgase freigesetzt werden (auftauender Permafrost, Methanemissionen, Regenwaldaustrocknung, ...). Wenn man das alles mit hineinrechnet kommt man wohl auf CO2 Gehalte über 1000ppm und eine globale Erwärmung von bis zu 16°C! Diese Berechnung geht mal davon aus, daß CO2-Emissionen genau so bleiben wie sie gerade sind. Im Moment steigen sie aber noch an, kann man nur auf "Peak Oil" hoffen? Ach ja und bei 16°C Erwärmung gibt es ein paar nette Features: Grüner Himmel, giftiges Wasser und so...
